How Arbitrage Works
What is Arbitrage?
Arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of price differences in different markets. In prediction markets, if Market A prices an event at 45% and Market B prices it at 58%, you can buy both YES and NO positions across markets for a combined cost under 100%.
When the event resolves, one position pays $1. You lock in risk-free profit from the spread.
Example
Polymarket: Kevin Warsh YES = 41¢
Kalshi: Kevin Warsh NO = 57¢
Total cost: 98¢
Payout when resolved: 100¢ → Profit: 2¢ (2.04%)
Risk Analysis
Arbitrage opportunities have extremely low risk since you're simultaneously taking opposite positions. The main risks are:
- Execution risk: Markets moving before orders fill. We mitigate with instant execution.
- Platform risk: A platform failing to honor trades. We only partner with reputable markets.
Fee Structure
- Platform fee: 1.5% of your profit
- Blockchain fee: ~0.5 TRX per transaction
- All fees are transparently displayed before execution