How Arbitrage Works

What is Arbitrage?

Arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of price differences in different markets. In prediction markets, if Market A prices an event at 45% and Market B prices it at 58%, you can buy both YES and NO positions across markets for a combined cost under 100%.

When the event resolves, one position pays $1. You lock in risk-free profit from the spread.

Example

Polymarket: Kevin Warsh YES = 41¢

Kalshi: Kevin Warsh NO = 57¢

Total cost: 98¢

Payout when resolved: 100¢ → Profit: 2¢ (2.04%)

Risk Analysis

Arbitrage opportunities have extremely low risk since you're simultaneously taking opposite positions. The main risks are:

  • Execution risk: Markets moving before orders fill. We mitigate with instant execution.
  • Platform risk: A platform failing to honor trades. We only partner with reputable markets.

Fee Structure

  • Platform fee: 1.5% of your profit
  • Blockchain fee: ~0.5 TRX per transaction
  • All fees are transparently displayed before execution